{"id":5158,"date":"2025-01-29T20:26:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-29T18:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/?p=5158"},"modified":"2025-01-29T20:26:06","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T18:26:06","slug":"two-charts-that-should-worry-the-fed-and-trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/?p=5158","title":{"rendered":"Two Charts That Should Worry The Fed (And Trump)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"postie-post\">\n<div>\n<div dir=\"auto\">Two Charts That Should Worry The Fed (And Trump)<\/p>\n<p>Personal consumption represents over two-thirds of economic activity.<br \/>Therefore, consumers\u2019 ability to spend, i.e., income, is\u00a0vital to the economy.<br \/>Taking it one more step,\u00a0RealInvestmentAdvice.com&#8217;s team notes\u00a0that confidence in the security of our jobs and wages drives the marginal consumption behaviors of most citizens.<br \/>With that, we share a chart that should worry the Fed.<br \/>The chart below shows that the University of Michigan survey of real household income expectations is plummeting.<br \/>Moreover,\u00a0the index is at its lowest since record began&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>There is a robust correlation between the unemployment rate and economic activity.<br \/>This relationship is logical.<br \/>When consumers are confident in their job security and the ability of wages to keep up or exceed inflation, they are more willing to spend.<br \/>Conversely, if they fear the possibility of a layoff or a wage that doesn\u2019t keep up with inflation, they tend to save.<br \/>While labor market data is generally good, there are signs the labor market is at a standstill. Continuing jobless claims are steadily rising and at their highest level in over three years. The JOLTS hires rate is at ten-year lows. While the number of layoffs remains low, employers aren\u2019t hiring either.<br \/>If the chart above wasn\u2019t concerning enough, the following chart should wake a few up in The Eccles Building&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>It shows employment expectations are also plummeting.\u00a0Similar changes in expectations have led to a higher unemployment rate previously.<br \/>Accordingly, the broad labor market data may seem good, but these two charts and other data\u00a0should give the Fed pause that consumers may start to spend less and save more<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"postie-attachments\">\n<div style=\"margin-right:10px;background:black;color:white;padding:2px; width:300px;float:center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/bfmEC63.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/bfmEC63-300x168.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" class=\"attachment\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"padding:.2em;text-align:left\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two Charts That Should Worry The Fed (And Trump) Personal consumption represents over two-thirds of economic activity.Therefore, consumers\u2019 ability to spend, i.e., income, is\u00a0vital to the economy.Taking it one more step,\u00a0RealInvestmentAdvice.com&#8217;s team notes\u00a0that confidence in the security of our jobs and wages drives the marginal consumption behaviors of most citizens.With that, we share a chart [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-issues"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5158\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.dhcab.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}